Iran

Iran is not accepting the Nakhchivan corridor issue

44 days later

The second battle of Karabakh ended 44 days later with the superior success of the Azerbaijani army. A nine-point ceasefire declaration was signed with Russia at the table, and for the first time in two months, we are witnessing a ceasefire.

According to the decision, Armenia will return the occupied territories to Azerbaijan, and Russian and Turkish troops will monitor the ceasefire. Today, the parliament of the Republic of Turkey accepted the proposal to send troops to Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan also expressed its support for this decision.

Some analysts are unhappy with Russia’s deployment of troops, especially in Karabakh, but many analysts on the other side argue that the Russians will be temporary as they try not to overshadow the achievements of the Azerbaijani army. In any case, over time, it will become clear how the agreement will be fully implemented on the field. In particular, the presence of Turkey in Azerbaijan and the control of the Turkish soldier over the issue comforts the Azerbaijani side.

However, in all that has happened, and in the views expressed, there are two states that seem to be a defeated country. The first is Armenia, the other is Iran. Although the Islamic Republic of Iran entered the Karabakh issue diplomatically late, it made a serious diplomatic effort. One side appreciates the ceasefire decision and chooses to remain silent, and in short, the incumbent officials do so. However, the opposition, both inside and outside Iran, believes that the ceasefire decision is extremely against and to the detriment of Iran. The Nakhchivan corridor is at the center of all criticism. Iranian analysts claim that the Nakhchivan corridor completely cut off Iran’s road to Armenia. An allegation was officially refuted by the Iranian Foreign Minister. On the one hand, there are those who claim that the corridor changed the geopolitical order of the region against Iran. The same issue was denied by the Foreign Ministry.

Why is Iran worried about the Nakhchivan Corridor?

In fact, it is quite normal for Iran to worry about the Nakhchivan corridor. According to the information, Iran’s blocking of the road with Armenia was a lie, but if Nakhchivan is connected to the eastern part of Azerbaijan by the mentioned corridor, first of all, Baku will no longer need Iranian land to go to Nakhchivan. This is a simple path, and for example, the Republic of Azerbaijan used to give 15 percent of the gas it sells to Turkey to Iran, and the implementation of such a project would be extremely harmful to Iran. Also, for Turkey, Iranian soil will no longer be the first priority. Because Turkey will no longer need to cool off in Iran to connect to Central Asia and, in a sense, to the Turkic world, and it will be closer and naturally cheaper to connect with the Nakhchivan corridor.
In this case, especially when we consider the current difficult economic situation in Iran, in the future, after the full settlement of the Karabakh conflict, even the relations between Armenia and Turkey and even Azerbaijan may be normalized. At that time, Turkey and Azerbaijan could be a much better preference for Armenia than Iran, and Iran could suffer serious trade losses. If this project is implemented, the policy of the Republic of Azerbaijan against Iran will undoubtedly become more powerful and its interest in the south will increase. At this point, it is even clearer how much Iran is concerned about the settlement of the Nakhchivan and Karabakh issues in general.

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