Iran

What is the key to solving Iran’s problems and low financial changes?

Iran

It is no secret that Iran is “pregnant” with wide and deep events and changes. The growing discontent of the people and the inefficiency and incompetence of the Iranian government have virtually eliminated the possibility of any reform and hope for the future. At the same time, changes in the region and the departure of the world system from the classical poles of the past have increased the likelihood that the fate of countries will be determined locally and regionally.

On the other hand, comprehensive US sanctions against Iran and a historic decline in foreign exchange earnings have seriously hampered the country’s normal functioning, leading to growing discontent. In such a situation, the coronavirus crisis has caused serious problems for the country, while the Iranian government has not been able to manage normal affairs. Iran, which does not have an acceptable record in crisis management, has gone bankrupt due to limited health care and financial resources. All this suffering is always accompanied by increasing pressure on the political opposition, which has significantly increased the potential for mass protests. The US elections, the start of a large-scale military confrontation to retake the occupied territories of Nagorno-Karabakh in the South Caucasus, and the growing public discontent on the verge of an explosion are all signals of a reversal for the beginning of a great change in Iran. Although it is no longer possible to abolish or deny it, its expansion and divergence through political interference is an obvious fact in Iran’s geography. This makes it even more important to carefully analyze the current situation and take the right measures with the least complication.

Economic recession

Iran’s economic problems have not arisen today. Iran’s high-level government-run economy suffers from major structural and root problems, both in terms of resource diversity. On the other hand, excessive dependence on oil and gas resources and insufficient investment and progress in the oil and gas industry has made the Iranian economy dependent on raw materials in the same sector. On the other hand, the lack of competent leadership and the imposition of comprehensive sanctions have made it very difficult for Iran to compete with its regional rivals. In particular, the continuing weakness of Iran in this sector and the opening of distances from rivals have exacerbated the decline of the Iranian economy in this sector. All these features have made Iran’s problems difficult not only for today but also for the future. According to local sources, a large percentage of Iran’s economy is directly dependent on several institutions led by Ali Khamenei. The continuation of this process in recent years and the lack of a monitoring and transparency mechanism have led to the accumulation of capital in the hands of a limited number of people who are not accountable to the law and the nation. The continuation of this process has led to the establishment of systematic and deep-rooted corruption in Iran’s economic and administrative system. These conditions are suffocating the rulers today with the melting of foreign exchange reserves. However, given that such a process has continued for years and there is no hope for reform, there is virtually no hope for fighting corruption. However, the system of the Islamic Republic of Iran lacks the will to fight economic and administrative corruption.

Iran’s current economic problems have reached such a level of poverty that, in addition to serious livelihood problems for many people, they have long caused irreparable damage to human health, both physically and mentally, which cannot be fully compensated economically. This development increased the need for rapid change in the current trend and made it impossible to continue the current approach.

Coronavirus crisis

Iran does not have a brilliant record in terms of crisis management. In the last 40 years, the ability to manage the crisis in the Islamic Republic can be seen as suppressing the demands of the people and public protests. In this regard, he considered the Iranian leadership successful and stressed that, according to the government, a healthy way out of the political crisis. However, in recent years, denying or, more precisely, suppressing the protests and demands of the people has, in fact, violated the public will of the oppressed people. He considered the use of force against the Iranian people legal and even necessary. The persistence of this approach over the years has shaped the character and culture of a particular type of government, in which the value of human life is not one of the government’s priorities.

We can easily see that the Islamic Republic of Iran manages the coronavirus crisis with the same inhumane attitude and crisis management. High-ranking officials of the Islamic Republic of Iran have deliberately concealed the existence of the disease after the coronavirus crisis in Iran. Several weeks have passed since the virus entered Iran, but officials in the Islamic Republic, led by the leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Seyed Ali Khamenei, have preferred political motives, such as 22 Bahman street rallies and two Isfand elections. Later, despite experts’ insistence on the need for quarantine restrictions, completely incompetent Iranian officials caused the disease to spread rapidly throughout Iran. However, if the necessary measures had been taken first in Gum and then in Tehran, the disease would not have developed so rapidly. In the months that followed, the chaos and lack of a unified and transparent leadership created another catastrophe, and the number of patients and deaths due to the virus increased. At all these stages, according to the Minister of Health of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Saeed Nameki, all decisions are not based on human life and health but are made and implemented in accordance with security issues. In a crisis like the Coronavirus, the inhumane treatment and performance of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s system has shown that the government’s view of the country and the people has a direct impact on human disasters.

Lifting the arms embargo

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran has officially announced the end of arms sales sanctions. Although there is a need for a technical assessment of the situation due to the sensitivity of the issue, it is clear that Iran will take full advantage of this situation. In recent years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has focused on expanding its combat and weapons capabilities, no matter how little it invests in humanitarian issues and the well-being of society. Iran has a large consumption of military equipment, with the presence and direct support of advocacy forces in the region, from Lebanon to Yemen and Syria. Thanks to comprehensive sanctions, especially in the banking sector, Iran has achieved significant success by focusing on this area and expending a lot of energy. The lifting of sanctions against Iran in this way will be an undeniable fact, first of all, in order to equip Iran’s advocacy forces and spread terrorism. Second, Iran will provide financial resources from the sale of these weapons to extend its rule. On the other hand, by meeting material needs and lifting sanctions, it will be possible to legally acquire large-scale ammunition and increase its destructive power.

But what is most important at this time is the ongoing war in Iran’s neighborhood. Armenia, which has virtually no air routes other than Iran, has had active relations with Iran in recent years. Given the defeat and withdrawal of Armenia against the Azerbaijani army, there is no denying the urgent need for military equipment in Yerevan. Armenia has repeatedly stated its readiness and even insistence on military cooperation with Iran at the highest level. Following the lifting of the embargo on the sale of Iranian weapons, the Persian section of the Armenian Public Radio wrote about the attractiveness of the Iranian missile system, emphasizing the lifting of the embargo on the Islamic Republic of Iran. Armenian Public Radio also cited people close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as an example, saying that it was possible to buy Iran’s missile defense system, which shot down a US drone in 2019. The Armenian news agency said it hoped the system would work successfully against Azerbaijani military drones purchased from Turkey and Israel. It should be noted that the close relations between Tehran and Yerevan, as well as Iran’s strong desire to defeat Azerbaijan for various reasons, the possibility of sending the equipment by the time of writing this article is not unexpected. Armenia’s access to Iran’s missile defense system near the Iranian border and its use against Turkish-made planes that also meet NATO standards gives the Tehran government an unparalleled experience. We must not forget that Iran is well aware of the opportunities and influences of the Armenian lobby and diaspora in the West and will use them to the maximum to achieve its goals. As in the past, the same lobby has been active in obtaining sanctions from the United States. It is no secret that Iran has used the opportunities of the Armenian lobby in the West and East to evade sanctions and reduce political pressure on it.

The symmetry of the lifting of the arms embargo with the Nagorno-Karabakh war and Armenia’s need for the help of others greatly facilitated Iran’s influence in the Caucasus. The West’s cooperation with the Armenian lobby and its silence on the continuing occupation of Karabakh by Armenia has strengthened the conditions of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region.

US elections

The Islamic Republic of Iran is not in a position to influence the US presidential election process, but there is evidence that Iran is trying to crack down on Donald Trump’s campaigns. Many Iranian officials have repeatedly said and shown that they want to defeat Trump in the current situation. Because Iran has become very weak due to the extensive sanctions of the Trump administration and is trying to prolong its life as much as possible. Iran is well aware that it will sooner or later have to accept talks to reduce the maximum pressure, but given Iran’s success in negotiations with the Obama administration, it hopes to sit at the negotiating table in the Biden administration. That’s why he does his best to defeat Donald Trump. On the other hand, it is impossible to live in such a system due to the fragmentation of the administrative system in Iran and the tragic separation of the government and the nation. Thus, although Joe Biden won the US presidential election because of Iran’s wishes, Iran will face many shortcomings in terms of internal problems. The people’s frustration with the reforms and the inefficiency of the government led the Iranian people to change the entire existing system. In this situation, if Trump fails, the hope that the Islamic Republic can be governed by a favorable agreement with the new US leadership, given the experience of Obama’s years in power, is practically unfounded. Iran has repeatedly proved that it will continue its regional policy and influence if possible and at the earliest opportunity and that changing the political approach in the United States will only pave the way for Tehran in this area.

The main role of non-Persian nations

The disintegration of Iran is not limited to the nation moving away from a single government. For years, the masses of the Iranian nation have faced a fundamental problem with the definition of this one state – one nation. The use of force to preserve unity in any way possible has resulted in a further separation of the components of the nation by the definition of the dominant power. The result is that Iran’s ethnic, religious, and sectarian divisions have intensified and it is virtually impossible to maintain unity. Meanwhile, the Iranian Turks, as the largest non-Persian population, have the largest isolated population from the center. Despite the Turks’ total denial of national identity and culture and their policies, they make up at least 40% of Iran’s population. Although the Turks have been slowly decentralizing over the past 40 years in terms of their active participation in the victory of the Islamic Revolution, we can safely say that in the current situation, they are Iran’s strongest non-centrist movement. They are completely separated from the centrist currents, and no centrist political force can emerge among the Turks, especially in Azerbaijan. On the other hand, at the initiative of the Turks, they have the ability and power to create a current in the whole body of non-Persians and even Persians who oppose the government. On the other hand, the Iranian Turks have the ability and ability to organize against the government in the most difficult conditions of protest, and from the Azerbaijani point of view, they have applied their actions from a political point of view to all other passive currents. For example, Azerbaijani Turks have significantly influenced Iran’s foreign policy talks by challenging Iran’s foreign policy in the Caucasus and Tehran’s support for Armenia. For example, this did not happen despite years of other protests against Syrian policy.

Thus, the Iranian Turks are the strongest political and social current in Iran in terms of widespread and demographic unification in the area. According to the vision and national awakening of the Turks, especially after the independence of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the expansion of Turkey’s influence in the region, to deny the power and influence of Turkish society is to deny the realities of Iran today. Thus, in the current situation, it is necessary for the present and future of Iran to involve the opinion and consent of the Turks in any scenario and decision.

At the same time, given Azerbaijan’s background in embracing democracy and laying the foundations for the Iranian government and nation, it is undeniable for the Western world to focus on this important issue.

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