A new report written by 234 scientists for the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) details five possible trajectories (AP) for global warming over the coming years. All five predict that in the 2030s, the world’s average temperature will surpass the most ambitious goal set in the 2015 Paris Agreement: limiting warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the findings as a “code red for humanity.”
The report concludes that human actions are “unequivocally” responsible (Guardian) for rapid climate change and details extreme weather events that are likely to occur with each increase in temperature. The kind of heat wave that occurred every fifty years in the past, for example, will likely happen twice every seven years if temperature rises 1°C above its current level. The report also includes individual regional predictions (IPCC). In two of its five macro-scenarios, the world would be able to avoid the higher Paris Agreement threshold of a 2°C temperature increase, but only with emissions cuts that are more intense than the current global trajectory.
Analysis
“More than any other forecast or record, this report’s determinations establish a powerful global consensus—less than three months before the UN’s COP26 international climate talks,” Bloomberg’s Eric Roston and Akshat Rathi write.
“To lead a global transition toward carbon neutrality, the United States needs to spur a race to the top in developing new green technology and creating new markets,”
